Factors affecting the progress of the project results of the analysis can be calculated for the A's reasonably optimistic about the ERP implementation of the five stages of the time, the most likely time and pessimistic time.
PERT formula based on various stages of expectations time and standard deviation.
Expected time = (+4 * optimistic about the time the most likely time + pessimistic time) / 6
Standard deviation = (optimistic time - pessimistic time) / 6
Look forward to the project implementation time (expected time and at all stages) = 133
Look forward to the project implementation time standard deviation = = = 2.77
If the various stages in accordance with the most likely time for the various stages of the project implementation plan, then the probability of the project completed on time what is? Calculate the standard deviation of normal values.
Z = (all stages and the most likely time – look forward to the project implementation time) / standard deviation of expectations of the project implementation time =(130-133)/2.77=-1.08
Check the corresponding normal distribution table derived probability was 14%, obviously, according to the most likely time for the various stages of project planning, the project most likely not be completed on time. In order to ensure that the project can be completed on time and on time completion of the first assumption that the probability is 95%, look up the corresponding normal distribution normal distribution tables derived the standard deviation of the values are 1.65,
Needs of the project time = 1.65 * 2.77 +133 = 137.57, rounded to 138. If the project implementation time is 138 days, the project completed on time is more than 95% probability; you can conclude that the project can be completed on time. According to the analysis of fish bone diagram a result, data preparation capacity is weak; you can increase the time for on-line preparation stage, the project plans can be formulated in accordance. Through the fish-bone diagram and program evaluation and review techniques used in combination, could formulate a reasonable ERP the project implementation plan, to avoid errors due to the project plans to develop, resulting in delays in the entire project can not be on time on-line. |
